6 new-launch condos in Singapore: Which is the hot favourite?

Every quarter, the local media will publish a story on private home transactions; often one that sensationalises how high or low they are, while completely ignoring the number of new launches. In light of that, I'm expecting another "OMG the private property market is going crazy" report this quarter.

The reason: six new launches this November. Here's a brief rundown, Nava Grove in D21, Union Square Residences in D1, The Collective @ Mount Sophia in D9, Novo Place in D24, and probably 2 of the most anticipated ones, Chuan Park in D19 and Emerald of Katong in D15.

And if you haven't heard, there were reportedly two?hour long queues just to get into the show flat at Chuan Park —?a combination of its mega development status, a public holiday, and being the first to launch.?

Maybe the rush is just to avoid the Chinese New Year period, when the market goes into a bear?— like state of hibernation. But the timing is appropriate, because you won't see anything scarier than these prices on Halloween (that is for those who haven't been house shopping for awhile).?

For newcomers to the property market in 2024, or those who planned their upgrade five years ago, you might want to sit down for this.

You'll notice that with the exception of the new EC (Novo Place), there's no longer a family-sized three-bedder for less than $2.1 million; the absolute lowest you'll find is the basic three-bedder at Emerald of Katong; and I'd expect those to be snapped up pretty fast.

In any case, it'll be interesting to see the final sales numbers after launch weekend. It's hard to say if launching all 6 at a time is a good strategy (if anything, I highly doubt that if the developers had their way, they would have wanted such a situation), but if we were to look at it positively the buzz it generates could have created more interest for some of the less known new launches.?

Given the "lottery" like ballot basis to secure a good unit, it's probably that agents would be telling their buyers to just put down cheques for multiple developments —?to see which one would hit.?

I also think we'll see a funny situation where the more affluent private buyers move fringeward, while HDB buyers move core-ward

Due to the private home prices, softening rental market, and ABSD hike on foreigners, it's quite likely we'll see private home buyers drift to the fringe. We might see a movement from the CCR out toward the RCR and OCR.?

Conversely, the number of million-dollar flats keeps rising. Perhaps some upgraders now see older, prime region flats as a more practical choice than a $2.1 million+ fringe region condo. There's also Prime housing schemes, which could see some lucky BTO buyers moving closer to the city centre.?

So I wouldn't be surprised if, in an odd quirk, condo buyers started shifting out to the fringe regions, while HDB buyers moved to retake more city areas or city fringe regions.?

It's not a bad thing, and I also hope the new prime housing will increase the allotment of rental housing or 2-room flats, so more lower-income residents can live near the city centre. The city centre is where demand for their work is higher.

The CBD or Orchard, for example, has more need for cleaners, service workers, etc. than a fringe part of Sengkang. Being a prime area, it also means there's a shot at higher earnings (although that probably requires government intervention). It's good for the businesses there, and good for the workers who can live near there.

It's one of the great ironies —?not unique to Singapore —?that people who most need to live near the city centre are often the ones who can least afford it.?

Weekly sales roundup (Oct 21?– Oct 27)

Top 5 most expensive new sales (by project)

Top 5 cheapest new sales (by project)

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
KASSIA	$1,013,000	474	$2,139	FH
LENTORIA	$1,313,000	538	$2,440	99 yrs (2022)
TEMBUSU GRAND	$1,399,000	527	$2,652	99 yrs (2022)
THE LAKEGARDEN RESIDENCES	$1,411,200	592	$2,384	99 yrs (2023)
HILLOCK GREEN	$1,534,000	624	$2,457	99 yrs (2022)

Top 5 most expensive resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
CUSCADEN RESERVE	$14,100,000	3757	$3,753	99 yrs (2018)
LEEDON RESIDENCE	$7,500,000	2669	$2,810	FH
REGENCY PARK	$4,825,000	2250	$2,145	FH
ROBIN RESIDENCES	$4,700,000	1830	$2,568	FH
PARC PALAIS	$4,100,000	2799	$1,465	FH

Top 5 cheapest resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
PARC ROSEWOOD	$660,000	431	$1,533	99 yrs (2011)
NATURA@HILLVIEW	$700,000	441	$1,586	FH
EUHABITAT	$720,000	527	$1,365	99 yrs (2010)
TREASURE AT TAMPINES	$784,000	463	$1,694	99 yrs (2018)
HILLION RESIDENCES	$805,000	463	$1,739	99 yrs (2013)

Top 5 biggest winners

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
PARC PALAIS	$4,100,000	2799	$1,465	$2,900,000	22 Years
LEEDON RESIDENCE	$7,500,000	2669	$2,810	$2,600,000	9 Years
THE SHELFORD	$3,080,000	1184	$2,601	$2,033,634	22 Years
THE METROPOLITAN CONDOMINIUM	$3,050,000	1733	$1,760	$1,690,100	18 Years
HOLLAND MEWS	$2,718,000	1270	$2,140	$1,668,000	20 Years

Top 5 biggest losers

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
MARINA BAY RESIDENCES	$2,420,000	1055	$2,294	-$436,880	15 Years
SEASUITES	$1,080,000	667	$1,618	-$65,000	12 Years
THE ROCHESTER RESIDENCES	$1,350,000	872	$1,548	-$18,112	17 Years
ILLUMINAIRE ON DEVONSHIRE	$968,000	441	$2,193	$12,000	14 Years
AURA 83	$808,000	484	$1,668	$14,200	12 Years

Transaction breakdown

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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.